Thursday, July 4, 2013

Been There, Bought The T-Shirt....

So when do tourists get to go to Mars? Assuming they want to of course; Mars is a long way off even on the shortest of trajectories. Until we develop faster forms of propulsion, the round trip is going to be about two years, most of it flight time and most of that pretty dull. And we have to give a colony the chance to get on its feet first; putting up guests, oxygenating them, and providing food and drink and basic accommodation is going to be a strain on resources in the initial few years. I doubt that facilities for tourists would be likely to become available for at least a decade after a colony is founded. Remember as well that part of the assumptions on which colony economics would be based is that of non-return. Further developments in technology and transportation costs need to be made before round trips become available for anyone.

Bear in mind also that the cost of a ticket is likely to be very high. That $500,000 a seat that Elon Musk has been talking about is for a one-way trip; and part of the pay-off for Space X, or whoever, is that when emigrants get to Mars they contribute to the pay-off by helping to develop the colony. The tourist price will not be just two times the 500 grand; it is likely instead to be several million dollars. I do not think that we are likely to see a thriving tourist economy any time soon.

So for the next two or three decades, however successful we are in beginning to settle Mars; if a guy comes up to you in a bar wearing a T-shirt which announcing that he has been to Mars with no reward but said shirt, be cautious before accepting him at his word!


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