Taking The Long View

How will the settlement of Mars be viewed in a historical context? How will it be rated against the Apollo Moon landings, or against Yuri Gagarin's first spaceflight? I think it will be judged the true beginning of the space age, of far more significance than Armstrong's one small step. That sounds a large claim; how can anything eclipse mankind's 'giant leap' on the Moon?

I don't want in any way to denigrate Apollo, or NASA or America's achievement. Both those on the ground who built and managed Apollo and the astronauts themselves were true heroes in the story of the human race. But the Moon landings can already now be seen as short-termism writ large. The time spent on the Moon was very small. There was no follow-up. There was no development of our long-term capacity for human exploration.

A settlement on Mars could be different. First, it could be a permanent and expanding human presence on another world. Secondly, it could be a genuine proving ground for developing the means and experience to explore or settle the rest of the solar system.

But the historical judgement; why do I think the significance of Mars will eclipse our previous achievements? Just consider the European discovery of the Americas. That has long been considered a key milestone in the human story. But what is seen as the crucial date? 'In Fourteen Hundred And Ninety Two, Columbus sailed the ocean blue....' That is not just a useful mnemonic verse; it underlines the weight we give to the event. The European adventure in the New World, with all its massive impact on subsequent history, dates from Columbus. That is because the European settlement then proved permanent and irreversible. The fact that Leif Ericson found America half a millennium earlier, and that viking settlement gained a temporary toehold there, is now proven. It is not something we forget,: but it is a footnote in history because the achievement was not permanent.

So, I fear history will neglect to some extent all our achievements so far in space. The settlement of Mars I expect to be different. If we can cling on there and make something of our new world, then centuries from now we will rate our first footsteps on the red planet alongside that first voyage of Columbus. In that context, the name of Neil Armstrong may be seen more in the light of a Leif Ericson figure, heroic though his achievement will continue to be.